2026 Colombian Presidential Election: Abelardo de la Espriella Wins First Round, Polymarket Bets Against Iván Cepeda
The first round of the Colombian presidential election, held on May 31, 2026, concluded with a historic upset. Right-wing candidate, lawyer, and businessman Abelardo de la Espriella took first place, securing 43.7% of the vote. In the second round, scheduled for June 21, his opponent will be left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda, who garnered the support of 40.9% of voters at the polls. Since neither frontrunner managed to cross the 50% threshold, the fate of the presidency will be decided in the final runoff.
De la Espriella’s success came as a complete surprise to the Bogotá political establishment and major polling agencies. Most pre-election polls had projected his support to be between 24% and 32%, but the actual results exceeded all expectations. Against the backdrop of this rapid surge, traditional candidates suffered a crushing defeat; in particular, Paloma Valencia received support well below her expected 12%. For many experts, this outcome signaled a deep societal demand for drastic change and new leadership.
Current betting market data presents an optimistic picture for the race leader. The Polymarket platform favors De la Espriella, estimating his probability of triumph in the second round at 65.5%. Meanwhile, Iván Cepeda’s chances of winning stand at 34.5%. With three weeks remaining until the decisive vote, Colombia is bracing for one of the most intense political standoffs in its recent history.
