Finland Takes the Lead, While Israel Captures the Televote: What Polymarket Predicts for Eurovision 2026
On the eve of the first semi-final of Eurovision 2026, which will take place on May 12, trading volumes on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket for the contest’s outcome have exceeded a massive $140 million mark. Crypto investors, voting with real money, have already determined the main favorite. At the moment, the absolute leader in the race for the crystal microphone is Finland, whose probability of winning is estimated at an impressive 45–48 percent. The Eurovision market is currently one of the most liquid on the entire platform.
Such a sharp breakaway by the Finnish representatives, the duo of Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen with the song “Liekinheitin,” came as no surprise to analysts. The entry, which is a vibrant mix of pop music and a violin show, skyrocketed in the odds after highly successful rehearsals on May 7. In addition, the Finns are consistently receiving high marks from the OGAE fan community and traditional bookmakers. Investors have virtually no doubts about their success: the probability of Finland reaching the top 10 is estimated at 95–97%, and the top 3 at almost 80%. The closest pursuers in the fight for first place are lagging significantly behind: Denmark’s chances are 12–13%, Greece’s are 11–12%, and France (7%) and Australia (5%) round out the top five.
However, a detailed analysis of additional markets on Polymarket reveals a rather intriguing picture of how sympathies are distributed. Despite the fact that Israel’s probability of an overall victory is around four percent, it is the main favorite to win the public televote. Traders give Israel a 28 to 30 percent chance of taking the lead among viewers, leaving the Finns in second place with 22–23 percent. At the same time, investors see Australia as the winner according to the professional jury—its chances in this category reach 34%.
The specificity of Polymarket lies in the fact that the platform reflects the “wisdom of the crowd,” where each prediction is backed by the users’ own financial risks, which often makes this data more accurate than traditional bookmakers. Traders are even predicting the margin of the results: the most likely scenario (35% probability) is considered to be a victory with a margin over second place in the range of 25–49 points. However, the risks of the platform itself should also be taken into account: complaints frequently appear online from users stating that the crypto bookmaker delays or completely refuses to pay out won funds, citing technical glitches or blocking wallet withdrawals. Furthermore, the odds themselves remain highly volatile and could change drastically immediately after the live performances in the semi-finals and on the eve of the grand final on May 16.
